GST/HST Holiday Leads to Significant Jump in Foodservice Sales in January
Based on data from Statistics Canada, commercial foodservice sales began 2025 on a strong note with a 7.5% increase in January, boosted by the GST/HST holiday. Even after adjusting for inflation, real sales rose by 4.3%—the highest real growth since April 2023. The increase in spending comes at a time when consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board of Canada, was at its lowest level since the early days of the pandemic.
Full-service restaurants led all segments with an 8.6% increase in nominal sales. This aligns with data from OpenTable that reported a significant increase in reservation activity during the tax holiday. Caterers and quick-service restaurants reported increases of 8.1% and 6.8% respectively. Only drinking places such as bars and nightclubs failed to see a jump in spending as sales rose a modest 1.0%.
At the provincial level, full-service restaurants were the main driver of growth. In Atlantic Canada, which saw a 15% HST holiday, robust gains were reported in New Brunswick (+15.6%), Prince Edward Island (+15.2%) and Nova Scotia (+13.4%). In contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador posted a 7.6% increase.
Full-service restaurant sales in Ontario and British Columbia rose by a healthy 10.1%.
As a result, we continue to ask the government to permanently exempt all food from sales tax, including restaurant meals, as it was during the GST/HST holiday.
Restaurants Canada will produce an in-depth report that measures the full impact of the tax holiday once data for February are released.
Click here for the dashboard and link to the latest Fast Facts.
As the Chief Economist and Vice President of Research for Restaurants Canada, Chris Elliott manages and produces a comprehensive research program that has made Restaurants Canada a leading source of information for and about Canada’s nearly $120-billion foodservice industry. Chris tracks and analyzes key industry and economic indicators and translates them into member reports and publications. He also provides research to support Restaurants Canada’s lobbying efforts on issues that affect foodservice operators – from payroll taxes to food costs.
Chris has worked with Restaurants Canada for over 20 years, has a Bachelor of Arts and Master’s Degree in Economics and specializes in economic modelling and forecasting.
