Another Pause – But the Threat Remains 

Another Pause – But the Threat Remains 

As CBC’s Washington-based reporter Alexander Panetta put it, “Being confused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans isn’t a flaw – it’s proof you’re paying attention.” 

Just before I sat down to write this update, Trump announced yet another pause on tariffs. But the message from Washington is clear: we must assume the tariffs will be back. The lobbying efforts here in the U.S. capital remain in full swing, and we cannot afford to let our guard down. 

Americans Support Free Trade—But Fear Speaking Up 

I’ve met with so many people over the past few days that it’s a challenge to keep track of all the perspectives. However, some key themes have emerged. 

There is broad support for free trade with Canada and Mexico, but Americans don’t think about Canada as much as we think about them. One key takeaway? We cannot take our trade relationship for granted. 

While most elected officials—particularly Republicans—and business leaders want to avoid a trade war with Canada, few are willing to openly push back against the tariffs. The reason? They fear losing access and influence with the current administration. Many rely on Trump’s posts on Truth Social for updates, and even here, nobody seems certain about what happens next. 

The Strategy Behind Tariff Threats 

The prevailing belief in Washington is that Trump’s tariff threats are aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.—a move many see as economically unfeasible. Others believe the tariffs are simply a bargaining chip for renegotiating the USMCA. And as for Trump’s infamous 51st state comment? Most see it as a joke that went too far. 

Should Canada Retaliate? 

Some members have asked: Why is Canada implementing retaliatory tariffs? Won’t they just hurt our own economy by driving up inflation? 

It’s a fair question, and I’ve spent the day speaking with trade experts at the Canadian Embassy, along with American stakeholders, to get a clear answer. The reality is this: retaliatory tariffs are about leverage. 

Farmers and ranchers—key Trump supporters—are deeply opposed to trade wars. Their livelihoods depend on exports, and past tariff battles have cost them dearly. When China retaliated against U.S. tariffs on soybeans, it shifted trade to Brazil—permanently damaging U.S. market share. The impact was so severe that the U.S. government had to issue a financial bailout. Today, that bailout fund is in dire fiscal shape, making another rescue difficult. 

If Canadian tariffs target this group, they will exert significant pressure on the U.S. administration to return to free trade. Mexico is employing the same strategy, amplifying the impact. Washington knows this—and they know we know it. 

The Retaliation List & Next Steps 

The Canadian government has released a second list of potential retaliatory tariffs for consultation. If there’s a strong case for an exemption, Ottawa is open to considering it. 

Our Tariff Working Group, comprised of supply chain experts, is actively building our case for exemptions. A big thank you to our working group members for the invaluable data they’re providing. Our submission will be ready for the government next week. 

Canada Strengthening Internal Trade 

Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand announced yesterday that all provinces and territories with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador and PEI will soon allow consumers to buy alcohol from other jurisdictions. The Committee on Internal Trade will also create a process to recognize labour credentials by June 1, while governments are moving forward with mutual recognition negotiations and reviewing their Canada Free Trade Agreement exceptions. Restaurants Canada has been lobbying on this issue for years and we are happy to see some real progress on this front.  

We will continue to provide updates as the tariff situation unfolds. Restaurants Canada, alongside our partners, is working hard to protect our industry and ensure our voices are heard. 

Stay tuned for my next blog—more updates coming soon.