Foodservice Sales Forecast to Grow 4.4% in 2025
According to Restaurants Canada’s latest forecast, foodservice sales are forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. On the surface, this represents a ‘typical’ year of foodservice sales growth. Once adjusted for menu inflation of 3.0% and population growth of 1.5%, however, real per capita spending will essentially be unchanged from 2024. In 2024, real per capita sales slipped 2.0% due to households cutting back on discretionary spending.
Total commercial sales, which include spending at quick-service restaurants, full-service restaurants, caterers and drinking places, are forecast to surpass $100 billion in 2025. When non-commercial foodservice sales (accommodation, institutional retail and other) are included, total foodservice sales are projected to increase to $124 billion.
The outlook is based on the latest forecasts from the Conference Board of Canada, which calls for the Canadian economy to grow by 2.1% in 2025 following a 1.0% projected increase in 2024. Retail spending is also forecast to improve in 2025, following two years of sub-par gains. However, a weak labour market will restrain disposable income growth and dampen consumer confidence. As a result, foodservice sales are forecast to see flat sales once adjusted for inflation and population growth. For forecasts by quarter and by commercial foodservice segment, click here.
As the Chief Economist and Vice President of Research for Restaurants Canada, Chris Elliott manages and produces a comprehensive research program that has made Restaurants Canada a leading source of information for and about Canada’s $114-billion foodservice industry. Chris tracks and analyzes key industry and economic indicators and translates them into member reports and publications. He also provides research to support Restaurants Canada’s lobbying efforts on issues that affect foodservice operators – from payroll taxes to food costs.
Chris has worked with Restaurants Canada for over 20 years, has a Bachelor of Arts and Master Degree in Economics and specializes in economic modelling and forecasting.
